On April 14, the regional grid operator, MISO, announced the results of its latest generation capacity auction. This annual process is designed to determine if there is sufficient generation supply to meet that summer’s maximum demand. The results were a gut punch. This auction showed that nine northern states, including Michigan, are 1,200 MW short of the supply needed to keep the lights on when demand is highest. “Short of the supply needed??” Yup. Gut punch.
After catching my breath, I realized it is not surprising. On a much smaller scale, Michigan found itself in this situation just two years ago. At that time, the Lower Peninsula of Michigan was short of the needed supply to meet the maximum demand for the summer of 2020. Fortunately, from an electric standpoint, the peak demand for the Lower Peninsula was lower due to the loss of commercial load caused by the pandemic (thanks, Covid). As a result, the most extreme measures of controlled or “rolling” blackouts were not necessary.
How did we get to a point where power supply for 9 states fails to meet the demand? Simply put, the power grid is changing. Large baseload generating assets, primarily coal and nuclear, are retiring and being replaced mainly by intermittent renewable energy. The challenge placed on the grid is that for every megawatt of coal and nuclear that is retired, 2 megawatts of solar and 10 megawatts of wind are needed to replace that supply. This isn’t saying solar and wind are “bad,” I’m just saying the physics of both simply can’t match the around the clock ability of the other major fuels.
I’m not trying to start a debate on climate either. I have one job – keeping the lights on. I need all the fuels to do it. Before anyone tosses rocks at me, remember that no other utilities in the state have a better portfolio of carbon-free energy than the electric cooperatives served by Wolverine, your cooperative’s supplier of wholesale energy. In fact, the Wolverine family of cooperatives is 63% carbon free and growing. Debating science diverts our attention away from solutions.
While we are already facing power supply shortages, 10% of Michigan’s generating fleet of coal and nuclear plants are slated for early retirement in the next three years. That’s an additional 1,900 MW of power we need to keep the lights on. This column is only asking for one thing to happen. Build replacement generation (of any kind you like) BEFORE any generation is shut down. This is all we need to avoid future blackouts. This solution is simple. The math is simple.
Locally, Wolverine has invested in generation supply on your behalf. This means we have sufficient generation supply at Cherryland that will meet our demand. Unfortunately, if blackouts are required by the grid operator, we must do our part as we are all interconnected to the same regional electric grid. “Our part” will involve blackouts in our area so others can take their turn using the grid connected generation Wolverine has built for us all over the years.
We’re doing everything we can to prevent a blackout situation. We’re working to educate the public about this energy shortage, we’re talking with policy makers about how to focus on clean energy sources without jeopardizing reliability, and you can help too. You can make a difference by sharing your stories, speaking up about the issues impacting your cooperative, and staying in the loop on these larger conversations that have a direct effect on our communities. I urge you sign up for Voices for Cooperative Power (www.voicesforcooperativepower.com/michigan/), a resource designed to give cooperative members across the country a larger collective voice to address energy issues that impact all of us.
Michigan was already operating under extremely tight power supply reserve margins. The gut punch signal that the market sent is that now the rest of the Midwest is too. We have a reliability issue this summer. We must build adequate replacement power. Absent that (and I believe it is absent), the reliability issue is here to stay. My sole concern is reliability and the growing risk that the lights could go out. Everybody has a bigger problem than a gut punch if that happens.
Interested in learning more? Check out our podcast Co-op Energy Talk: In Short Supply – Is Michigan Facing Blackouts?
So in the mid Michigan region in the next few years the lakes (like Sanford) that drained will have dams rebuilt. I’d be hopeful that they can re-establish power generation that could be tapped when solar or wind is not adequate at the moment.
The best and cleanest generation is running water. Hydropower is great.
I couldn’t agree more with you assessment as to what action is needed. In my opinion we need to keep the nukes running while we try to get ahead of the game.
Tony, thanks for being a voice of reason amidst a comic-book class of political & business “leaders.” We are an unserious country.
Please, let me toss the first rock. How does a person with the Bully Pulpit get to, monthly, criticize solar and wind “clean” energies for not being the perfect solution to energy problems caused, in part, by not-so-clean coal, and natural gas released from the earth by fracking and then not want to get into a debate? We get it Tony—the sun doesn’t shine at night and the wind doesn’t always blow. Jeez, can you get some different material? Did you not see this coming? If climate activists were listened to years ago when a problem was first identified by real scientists, we might have a better handle on energy shortages. Sure you don’t want to get into climate and science debates. Why is that?
I have a responsibility to inform the members of my viewpoint. Anyone is welcome to disregard the information. I don’t have different material because I don’t any different fuels than I had a year ago or 10 years ago. What I have is less generation on the grid today than a decade ago. If you have read my column for years, you would know that I saw this coming. My mistake was not seeing it coming this fast. As I have said repeatedly, climate arguments don’t solve the problem. Generation of all types at utility scale solves the problem. It’s simple math, no science necessary.
My question is what would the impact be if solar cap was eliminated completely?
I honestly can’t answer that question. We don’t have a cap on solar at Cherryland. Small home scale solar, while helpful, is a small player. We need utility scale energy of all types.
Thanks for your timely reply Tony, to my response to your column. Points well taken. One thing that I forgot to mention was regarding the predicted possibility of blackouts. One way to look at a blackout is as a kind of “mandated conservation” of resources. It would be like turning off unneeded lighting at our home, but on a huge scale. The power grid is conserving energy during a blackout so that we may all have some rather than nobody having any. The one piece of the energy jigsaw puzzle that is not emphasized enough, but is within our control, is energy conservation. It won’t save the world, but it might keep us from returning to the dark ages. We can do it ourselves, or have the electrical grid overlords do it for us.
There is one big problem with “mandated conservation” via the blackout scenario. It is people on oxygen and other life support necessities. Lives will be impacted. Setting aside serious health impacts, yes, conservation is a solution. No question that we all will need to get better in that area.
Tony- you continue to be a voice of reason in an increasingly polarized world. Keep it up- I always appreciate hearing your well thought out views!
Hi, Mike. I have a relative staying with me for the summer. He has sleep apnea and stops breathing 139 times per hour. He doesn’t sleep at all without his C-pap machine, which needs electricity to run. Any ideas on how to survive this for people that have medical problems that require electricity 24/7?
Sorry, We hear that solar and wind power will be our savior for the future in energy. NOT!!!! I wish it was I would like solar on my roof of my house and a turbine power windmill too!! The solar power roof is a RIP OFF!! Doesn’t save me money and it cost 20,000 to 35000. Depending on how a home from 1,200 square feet to 3000 square feet. If there are turbines for my home and American made please let me know there aren’t any!!!! This is so sad that I am hearing that we are going to have rolling blackouts in Michigan!! I want my state and federal government to give me the right to live a life that we in this nation should have!!! With no partisan in energy companies !!
To be clear, we are only saying that rolling blackouts are “possible”. They are not a foregone conclusion.
Perhaps this would be a great opportunity for a bipartisan effort to contact all of our representatives and let them know they need to prevent this. Reference the article…(send the link) and ask them to respond. If they are campaigning go by and see them. This works..the squeaky wheel gets the oil.
https://cherrylandelectric.coop/2022/05/gut-punch/#
Rick – this is already underway. Go to the Cherryland website and click on the Voices for Cooperative Power to send an email to the Governor and each MPSC commissioner. So far, almost 4,000 co-op members have sent over 20,000 emails to the commission.
The idea of only retiring power sources when their replacements are online just makes perfect sense Tony. I am a big supporter of switching over to renewable energy sources and was personally ready to install a solar system at my house back in 2016, but then Cherryland decided to stop reimbursing homeowners for excess power at the retail rate they were paying and that dramatically changed the economics of the entire process and it killed my dream. It might be a good idea to continue with the nuclear sources at least while retiring the dirtier coal fired plants as new sources slowly get added. Understandably there has to be a compromise somewhere because people are just not going to put up with normalizing rolling blackouts! We have to build more solar, wind, and hydro power sources (and perhaps even nuclear) in order to continue to push toward the goal of eventual carbon free energy sources. We must not be dissuaded from that goal because climate change is real, proven, scientific fact requiring immediate action. But let’s do it with some common sense too.
Solar and wind is a blight on our landscape, is not clean, requires back up for every Mw produced, increases unreliability of the grid. Without huge advances in the technology, so called clean renewable energy will never be the solution!
We need more nuclear, NG generation plants or a combination of these two sources
Dear Tony we appreciate your voice of reason in an area where there is much dissent at times. I’m for renewable too. But not at the cost of coal or nuclear power, or gas, oil. i have-family in the gas and oil fields in Texas, in upper-echelon manage-ment that rose up through the ranks.Very well versed in all facets of energy . Wind , solar , nuclear etc. I believe , as he does that we are going to need oil and gas as number one , then solar, and wind. The numbers he quotes from all areas support that info due, to the issue you spoke about rolling blackouts. He’s worked all over the states, Mexico and other countries. I’ve not found him to be wrong in the past about predicting what is coming down the pike . His views clearly align with most of yours . In this article. I don’t think we can eliminate any avenue of energy just yet we have to remain more flexible to all options due to the issues with the grids, and continue to harness and build on our solar and wind power. Also in traverse city we had some dams that were taken off line and demolished to me that seemed short sighted . Seems to me they should have kept them and updated them No Matter The Cost, no one knows what the next 100 years will bring and water is a powerful source of energy , that’s what got us where we are in this country in the early days. It should be invested in again.
100% agree with your views on hydro power. Sadly, I don’t see a collective public sentiment for building any hydro anywhere. Thus, the energy industry has scratched that great source of power off the list. Maybe, just maybe, it will come back. A guy can dream.
So much of the commentary on this is just disingenuous drivel. We WILL face blackouts sooner or later (translation: real people die real deaths) because large and reliable generating sources are being pulled off-line or not being built to placate the climate cultists in the USA, while countries like China continue to build significant new generating capacity that isn’t driven by “green” madness. Sane people can see the future for non-carbon sources of electricity generation, but not in such a manner as to assure America’s further descent into third world mediocrity.
Common sense does not enter the minds of the Climate zealots. They would seemingly drive the human race extinct in order to save humanity from their predicted human extinction. Crazy!
Tony, I see you have an impossible task. You are doing your best to educate.
I wish there was a way to tell people that the amount of energy generated by the low head dams that have been removed would
never be enough. Of course the cost to build or rebuild these dams would be paid by all of us and not even dent the problem.
Good Morning Tony,
The time I took to listen to CEC Blog S8E6 – “In Short Supply: Is Michigan Facing Blackouts?” dated May 20, 2022 was well worth it. MISO estimates for a shortfall of available electricity and the possibility of rolling blackout this summer presents Wolverine Power and Cherryland Electric Co-Op with opportunities to have members voluntarily shed load on the demand side.
I may be mistaken, but Time of Day rates; rate discounts given for off-peak electric usage, are still only available to large power members. Would it not be a good time for exploration or expansion of Time of Day rate offerings to Residential/General Rate members?
I for one would like the opportunities be creative to shift personal consumption and expect more from my Smart Meter. If rate making for this new class is not logistically feasible in the short term, then why not start a beta testing group this summer composed of those working from their post-COVID residential workspaces?
The ideal of punitive rates for members unable to shed load is as unfavorable as rolling blackouts. It is heartening though that punitive rates are being discussed as it offers both incentives to those members who turn a fan on instead of the A/C while increasing the monthly bills of members who choose to spend more for their electricity.
Joel
Joel
We have a cost of service study underway and expect to get the results in September. TOU rates are on the table for sure. The first step to any scenario on grid reliability involves voluntary reductions. We have set up our outage texting system to provide notices to members IF we need such reductions. Thus, many members will have the opportunity to help us out.
I am confident we will not have “punitive” rates of any kind. What is more likely is that the $18 availability charge goes to true cost of service ($40?) and the kilowatt hour charge comes down so that the price for average usage of 700 kwh is revenue neutral. Once there, we can adjust the kwh charge to different levels at different times of the day. This will let each individual choose the TOU that fits them best. Please know, I share this only as an educated estimate until we get the real numbers from the ongoing study.
Tony, Great article and certainly we should educate on all options available; being a retired submarine reactor operator, this topic caught my attention. Nuclear power is environmentally sound, provides large scale power using a tiny fraction of the land mass that wind mills and solar panels need to produce the same power. Nuclear power could be available to provide affordable excess capacity for decades into the future if we could start now to rebuild that industry with today’s technology. We only have to look to the U. S. Navy which has been using nuclear power for electrical generation and propulsion for nearly 70 years safely, reliably and with zero emissions since the commissioning of the USS NAUTILUS. The Navy’s nuclear power plants are designed to be inherintly safe and go many years never needing to be refueled. We as a country have the know how, and the talent to design, build and operate nuclear power plants that don’t ruin Michigan landscapes with polluting smoke, square miles of inefficient solar panels, and unsightly unreliable wind mills.
I totally agree. Nuclear is a great option. Our country simply needs to have a unified plan for the waste.