For literally decades, coal was “king” in power generation. It was crowned way back in the 1970s when President Carter told us we were running out of natural gas. The best alternative at the time was coal, as it was found in abundance, with plenty still in the ground today. So, America did what it does best—build things — and the reign of coal began.
Coal was cheap and reliable when it came to generating large amounts around the clock for decades. Its queen of around-the-clock generation, nuclear energy, was steady and reliable as well, even though it had high-cost construction issues. Therefore, we had a strong king and queen to take care of our kingdom’s electricity needs at all times.
Coal and nuclear prices have never been volatile. You could always count on them to be the same price in the dead of winter as they were during the heat waves of summer.
Fuel delivery was never an issue either. Most coal plants kept 30 days of fuel on board, while nuclear plants had years of fuel on-site. This on-site storage was pivotal to the steady prices for the power supply coming out of these behemoth plants.
Fast forward to present day 2022. You will find that the king and queen are old and aging. Coal and nuclear plants are being shut down as they near the end of their useful lives. In some cases, it is a monetary issue as well because wind, solar, and natural gas are more competitive than they have ever been.
While the price of wind and solar is steady, their ability to supply power is not. The sun sets every day, and the wind is unreliable. With the gradual retirement of coal and nuclear, natural gas is now the backup power of choice during the dark of night and the calm of the day.
There is a cost problem with natural gas. The price of the commodity has a history of volatility. It rises and lowers with the seasons and their peak times. Large supplies are not found at the generation site. The fuel is stored in underground caverns at various locations and pumped through pipelines for “on-time” delivery.
When we had an abundance of coal and nuclear, we used them to combat the volatility of the natural gas supply. When gas prices went up, we simply shut off the gas generation and cranked up coal and nuclear. It was easy, predictable, and reliable. The king and his queen served loyal users of electricity across the land in this manner for decades.
In the years ahead, we won’t have as much king coal and queen nuclear available to save us from the ups and downs of natural gas. The pair won’t be around when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
Therefore, natural gas is the new prince of power. The fuel-in-waiting will one day be king. Power costs will be higher. Power costs will have more volatility. Battery storage is a peasant that lives in a faraway land of high cost and scarcity of mineral supply. Natural gas will become king long before we solve battery storage for wind and solar. It may not be the fairy-tale ending some want, but it is the reality we will all get.
Since your opinion piece is about seeing into the future of energy, I’ll offer my own glimpse into of our energy future, and really, into our future, period. Perhaps, in ten years, only you and Joe Manchin will still believe in the role that coal will play in the world energy portfolio. I’m wondering if you’ve ever heard of CO2 emissions, a climate that is nearing unbearability for humans, and no relief in sight. You seem to see a future of natural gas, a secondary role for coal, and very little future for wind and solar because ” the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine and battery storage is a faraway peasant”. Rather than a doomsday prophet, I’d like to think I’m a realist who doesn’t ignore scientific evidence, fact-based reasoning, and my own eyes. Before too long we won’t be needing coal, natural gas, atomic energy, solar or wind energy. It will be even harder to breathe as a result of poor air quality and the presumption that we are beyond the tipping point in being able to mitigate climate change.
Show me a utility in the state of Michigan or the Great Lakes region that has done more to lower its carbon footprint. Cherryland’s record stands out. So, yes, I have heard of CO2 emissions. Cherryland has been and will continue to do its part. Now, show me an environmental group that has put money into actual renewable generation of significant impact. Talk is cheap. Action is what is needed. I sleep good at night when I look back on my 20 years at Cherryland. No environmental groups came to our aid over more wind in the Thumb. Now, we are battling zoning issues over a large solar project in southern Michigan. No environmental groups coming to our aid there either. They just sit on the sidelines and point fingers without making investments. They need to be better than that. This column and our current state of affairs doesn’t solely lie at the feet of the utilities.
So, say something good about alternatives then. Whenever you write about alternatives, it’s always “they are unreliable”, “they are more costly than coal”, (both true observations) and “conservation isn’t a realistic option” (mmmm, maybe). Do you ever publicly state that perhaps renewables are a realistic TRANSITIONAL energy alternative as we look for alternatives to fossil fuels. Say something, anything, GOOD about renewables so that your rhetoric presents at least a tiny belief that there is some hope for renewables. Write it here, in print.
I have put it in print many times. Renewables are part of the solution. They are not the silver bullet. Time and again, I have written about not putting all your eggs in one basket. Our power supply is an all of the above situation. I just approach renewables from a realistic and affordable standpoint. Sometimes that gets taken the wrong way. I am okay with that. I don’t need to be right. I just need to be consistent. I believe I have been if you have been reading the past 20 years of my column.
Dear George:
You’ve got to stop drinking the Kool aid!
More than 90 percent of C02 generation comes from the earths core, through the mantle and then escapes into the atmosphere from our oceans.
The concentration of C02 has remained fairly constant @ 400 parts per million since records
have been kept. In fact since the onset of deciduous plants the C02 level has been going down, check the fossil record.
On that point, the future of energy generation is geothermal. Just like our home heating units but on a much larger scale.
So perhaps George, instead of scaring people, you should take up a hobby, I’ve heard knitting is nice
Harvey:
You may be right, see me in 20 years and see which side of history you are on. BTW, coal comes from the Earth’s core. I checked the Fossil Record. That doesn’t mean I want to breathe it. Happy knitting, and pass the Kool Aid.
Regards,
George
“Before too long we won’t be needing coal, natural gas, atomic energy, solar or wind energy” …..
Hee Hee Hee…………..
Good Lord man, offer a viable solution. Constant criticism of others offering valid points is senseless and a bit sanctimonious. Let’s see, AOC is in her 3rd year in congress. A former bartender supposedly with an economics degree, gave us 12 years before we are flooded, burning etc. That means we have 9 years left. Gonna do some traveling in that time George? The average jet engine burns roughly 6 gals. of fuel per minute. 5000 flights per day just from US ports. Care to extrapolate? I don’t use that much fuel in a week on my work commute. Frankly, I am not in disagreement that the climate is changing. However, we require heat in northern climates in winter and rational well thought out solutions. Tony was making the point that natural gas, which burns much cleaner than most any other fossil fuel will supplant coal and nuclear power. That being said, we will see price fluctuations. Pretty obvious you are left leaning, which no one is opposed to, but for Pete’s sake man, reread the man’s Op-Ed.
Tony, Good morning and THANK you. Spot on once more! Could not agree more!
This article is depressing on so many points,we had a system,”coal and nuclear “that was working and now we are systematically dismantling it in pursuit of “wind and solar” and this carbon free fantasy land, where we will all be encouraged to use less and pay more ! and all these efforts to conserve usage in our homes and businesses will be more than offset by this promotion of and incentivizing of electric vehicles which will place more stress on our fragile electrical grid !!!
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Tony – You report that President Carter was the President when King Coal was crowned in the 70’s, yet you fail to identify which President deposed King Coal to detriment of America’s ability to generate cheap RELIABLE power. Which President was that Tony? Also, please fill us in on which President banned widespread fracking to the detriment of America’s ability to produce RELIABLE volumes of cheap Prince Natural Gas. Please “A-Woken” us to the missing names of the characters in your tale of woe, a tale wherein the hidden thread is the fairy tale of anthropomorphic global warming, Tragically, your industry has been enslaved, chained to rely on unreliable, and thus increasingly expensive sources of power by the party of slavery, which is filled with charlatan politicians who leverage the fairy tale of anthropomorphic global warming to enslave Americans, and increase our woe.
The nuclear power train has left the station. Next train… 20 years.
Tony:
Please do an article which discloses the average and peak demand for electrical power in Grand Traverse County (my residence) and the number of “generators” excluding coal or natural gas needed to provide that demand.
I recommend that George and Tom do a lot more research on the subject of energy and “climate change”. If anyone wants to be better informed, first watch the Mann vs Curry & Moore debate from June 2018 and then read Joe Bastardi’s current book that provides extensive historical data on climate and weather. You will come away wondering how CO2, an element that represents .04% of earth’s atmosphere, can impact our climate. You might even question how we determine Earth’s optimal climate?
We all need to take a renewed look at nuclear power. I would appreciate Tony’s input on this. Current insights… Bill Gates founded TerraPower which plans to commercialize next generation nuclear fission power by 2030. Even better, Commonwealth Fusion (Bill Gates is a major investor) plans to demonstrate commercial viability by 2025. Even better, Helion Energy projects that they will install their first fusion reactor in 2024. Note that the latter two are small scale reactors that lend themselves to distributed power generation that will improve the reliability of our fragile electric power grid.
I support nuclear. I do believe that small scale nuclear is the real answer. However, I don’t have high confidence that, as a country, we can agree on nuclear as a major solution for our future. Bill Gates will certainly help move it closer to the mainstream. Too many people want one solution and it has to be “their” solution. I sincerely wish we could all agree on the nuclear option as one big piece of our future.
I have heard that Consumer’s Energy manages the volatility of natural gas prices by buying when the prices are low and storing it for use when the prices are high. You might want to talk with them for some insights on that.
Michigan has a lot of water! Why does nobody talk about hydrogen power or hydroelectric power?
It’s all about the environment and the fish. No environmental group will support making a hydro facility. Thus, it is a losing battle. Hydro is the best renewable resource. Sadly, when a utility promotes it, there is nobody there willing to support them. So, we move on to fight battles we can win – natural gas. I don’t make the rules. I just have to use them to keep the lights on in an affordable manner.
Today there is no wind or sun due to clouds. Yet my home is warm. Good article Tony.
So many different comments but the upshot is that natural gas’s king now. Two of my family live and work in Texas in the Oil and Gas industry, my son has been involved the industry for 30 plus years. He does not see the dependence going away any time soon. Yes solar and wind fill a small niche but I can’t envision them as a mainstay for our country or the world in general. Worst decision made by our president was shutting down our internal resources and getting our gas from overseas / OPEC. I cannot envision our future without coal, gas , or Nuclear Energy . And it’s time that the environmentalists actually realized they cause more problems than they solve. As was pointed out you don’t see them donating money to build solar or energy plants of any kind. We need to agree and move forward with what works which is coal , oil, gas, nuclear. And have wind and Solar as fill ins . I also agree with the hydroelectric plants. Too bad The dams were dismantled here it would have been a nice back up in case , I think it’s shortsighted to eliminate sources for electric of any kind. Emissions are under control and getting less. My son has certain goals to meet constantly. So I think Tony’s article was good.
Hydrogen power is clean. Wind and solar can charge batteries and the batteries and salty water is all you need to produce hydrogen. The only byproduct is oxygen and when you burn it the only emissions is water vapor. USA concentrates on electric vehicles while Europe is busy developing hydrogen cell vehicles. Why is the US always behind?
Tony, you speak the obvious truth of our current state of “energy” in the US. Small scale nuclear “peakers” would help and should be incorporated into the mix. Clean coal technology and carbon sequestration is within sight. My concern with wind is it’s about as archaic as it gets. It is OLD technology. Newer technologies (nuclear fission, fuel cell, ammonia, etc.) will quickly replace wind and when that happens who’s going to dismantle and dispose of them?
The truth on coal is the global use has never been higher and continues to grow ( China, India & Asia). What we do here in the US to reduce emissions becomes less and less significant everyday. We have significantly improved our air quality over the last 50 years.
The lemmings over the Cliff is where we are headed with electric vehicles. This seems like another disaster in the making, watch and see.. Total dependency on electric for everything sounds great until the lights go out.